Is China recession proof?

A panel of leading Chinese economists explains how the world’s fastest-growing economy keeps expanding despite the global downturn. In this interview, conducted by McKinsey’s Janamitra Devan in March 2009 in Beijing, four distinguished members of the McKinsey Council on China Business Economists explore these questions.


What's next in innovation

Management guru C.K. Prahalad examines the technique of tapping individual consumers to help develop products and create appealing experiences, using the example of Build-a-Bear. Video contribution from McKinsey Quarterly

Then and Now - Portion sizes ??

One of the interesting things that change while a country goes through development path is the changes in "food habits, consumption patterns". Some of the good things that happen during developing stages is that

• abundance, easy availability and ease in sourcing of stuff that otherwise not earlier feasible (If it is grown somewhere in the world, I am sure it is available for consumption in US somewhere !)


• extended life through improved preservation, packaging and distribution through grocery chains linked across country


• switch from commodity base to variety focused (for eg ordering Coffee in old days was just that -coffee, you never asked for other options - now you go to starbucks the menu listing is quite a mouth ful !)


• easier processing / bulk manufacturing through automation (even mother's milk is available in packets)

So all of these have made our life easier such that we get the food that we like best, closer to home, in best possible condition and comfort, ofcourse at best possible prices.

Now let's look at the negative side & impact of these changes- particularly focusing on one topic "Portion sizes of food items". Most of you have watched the movie Supersize me (If not, you should !)

I did notice this too like most immigrants, the size of what is considered small in US is equivalent to probably a medium or large elsewhere in world. So the common complaint heard from an American visiting other countries is that portions are generally small, where as those visiting US are in awe of the supersizes when they order for example a large soda or pizza.

So on one hand we should be happy that we get a better value for money in quantity terms(physical measures like lb or gram per $ spent), but what about the qualitative impact the bigger portion has on

• long term health of population exposed ?
• amount of food wastage ?
• impact on food shortages ? or resulting rise in prices ?
• ofcourse the impact of overconsumption on earth's resources ?

Unquestionably bad right!! but what do we do about it ? or more importantly as relevant to this blog is how are developing countries dealing with this trap of increased size portions while adopting to the new food habits such as prepared meals, packaged meals, fast foods, refrigerated items etc ? or what should they be doing differently and pro-actively learning from lessons

So here is where I spent sometime exploring the world w/respect to Portion sizes, for example "what size should a pizza slice be ?", or "how much coffee should be there in one cup ?", or "how do we avoid food wastage ?" etc . Also the measures being adopted (good and bad if any) in different parts of the world to control this epidemic.

Facts to know :

> Excellent quiz from National Institute of Health (NIH) to gain an awareness of how portions of food have grown in US in over last few decades.

> Portion sizes offered by fastfood chains are often two to five times larger than when first
introduced.

Hershey's chocolate bar 0.6 oz in 1908 ; 1.6 - 8.0 oz in 2002
Burger King Hamburger sandwich 3.9 oz in 1954 ; 4.4-12.6 oz in 2002
McDonald's soda 7 fl oz in 1955 ; 12-42 fl oz in 2002
Coca Cola bottle 6.5 fl oz in 1916 ; 8-34 fl oz in 2002

> Portion sizes of these items offered in the United States exceed those available in Europe. Largest orders of French fries and soda at McDonald’s in the United States contain about 100 calories more than the largest sizes offered in Sweden, for example.

> Fast-food portions in Europe ofcourse also are also larger today than they were in 1998. Today’s largest soda at Burger King in the UK is 10 oz larger than in 1998.

> Americans spend nearly half of their food budget on foods prepared outside of the home and consume about one-third of daily calories from outside sources, much of it from fast food.

> Rather than reducing portion sizes, the top fast-food chains are engaged in sleight of name, so don't be fooled by the so-called voluntaty efforts. McDonald’s and Wendy’s have dropped descriptors such as Supersize, Biggie, and Great Biggie and replaced them with Medium or Large

> Discussion about fast food and its negative impact

Sources : Journal of Public Health Policy (2007) 28, 238–248. The Contribution of Expanding Portion Sizes to the US Obesity Epidemic

Efforts being done in India:

FSSAI - established under Food Safety and Standards Act, 2006 which consolidates various acts & orders that have hitherto handled food related issues in various Ministries and Departments. FSSAI has been created for laying down science based standards for articles of food and to regulate their manufacture, storage, distribution, sale and import to ensure availability of safe and wholesome food for human consumption.

Food quality regulator to rate Delhi eateries ahead of 2010 Games

Lessons to-be learned & measures to be adopted :

Policy approaches are urgently needed in developing countries to establish, educate and enforce portion size controls & reduce energy intake from fast foods learning from the experiences of developed countries.

Governments, health care regulatory agencies, industry, political parties, NGOs, citizens in general from developing nations like India to immediately look for ways to avoid this problem in first place, and aggressively initiate proactive measures.

Derived from my own research and assessment, here is a sample list of such measures that are needed for places like India :

• A single front-of-pack labelling scheme for all packaged foods & publishing mandatory nutritional information on menus for food eaten out of home
• smaller portion size restrictions & increased taxation for energy-dense and high salt foods & saturated fat and sugar levels in particularly beverages
• guidelines for marketing food to children in schools, cafeterias
• increasing public awareness and consumption of healthier and balanced foods and media-based communication of key healthy eating messages to explain and act on the relationship between portion sizes, calorie intake, and weight gain.

Ofcourse to implement these, there is no need to reinvent, here are some examples of already work done globally which can be tailored to local needs:

• CDC Brochure and Dietary recommendations for Americans in US on portion control
• In 2001, the Surgeon General announced a "Call to Action" for obesity prevention which stressed the importance of portion control.
• The New York City Health Department recently approved regulations to require fast-food chains to post the calorie counts of foods directly on menu boards
• Taxation : A Healthy Tax - taxing drinks/foods oversized or loaded with sugar or salt is the right step toward fighting this epidemic.
• Efforts in UK Food Standards Agency (FSA) directing all stakeholders including businesses, trade associations and non-governmental organisations to take action.

As you are aware this is by no means is end of this topic, but rather a beginning - feel free to add your comments, raise local awareness among politicians, join a non-profit group, initiate your own actions to help out.

Striking similarities ?? or do we never learn ??

WSJ posted an article this week titled "Recession Turns Malls Into Ghost Towns ". Quoting from this ...

"With their maze of walkways and fast-food courts, malls have long been an iconic, if sometimes unsightly, presence in the American retail landscape. A few were made famous by their sheer size, others for the range of shopping and social diversions they provided.

But the long recession is helping to empty out the promenades.

Some analysts estimate that the number of so-called "dead malls" -- centers debilitated by anemic sales and high vacancy rates -- will swell to more than 100 by the end of this year...

Now my blog always tries to compare and contrast the developed countries vs the developing countries, and hope they don't commit the same blunders in the name of progress and development. So let's go to the otherside of the world, to India where the headlines scream ..

India :

• 328 new malls by 2010: retail report - LiveMint.com ;
• Are luxury brands, malls future of Indian economy? - Economic times, India
• India's Mania for Malls - Time

Related Posts & Links

"how US got malled" - look back at the American Mall's rise to prominence and recent woes from 1950's to present day.

Malls R US documentary trailer



Groceteria - a history of the American supermarket, from both an architectural and a business perspective.

India's shopping as it still exists in most parts of India until the recent mall mania took over ...





A glimpse of current Malls already open in India's cities

India's Elections

Now that the elections are over in India, where the ruling Congress party came back with a thumping majority much contrary to the predictions of political pundits. So here's an interesting article in Indian express revealing statistic about the wealth of the recently elected members of parliament (MPs). Infact all MPs elected from my home state of Andhra topped the list with a combined wealth of 600 crore rupees (6 Billion rupees).

Now is that a statistic that one should be proud that India is getting rich and the rich bloc are getting into politics finally or to be ashamed that democracy is being hijacked by the rich while increasing even further gap by the rich and poor (nearly 15 per cent of the people living in abject poverty for eg in Andhra Pradesh). Ofcourse we also need to be reminded that declared wealth of politicians is only tip of the iceberg, the true wealth could be beyond our imagination.

No wonder when I spoke to my Dad in India on his opinion of the recent elections, he said one word "despicable". Ofcourse all is not gloom and doom.. there's a brighter side to these elections and change is occuring of course at a snail's pace.

This again from own home state of Andhra, where JP, the former buearucrat leader of the newly formed Loksatta (People's power) Party won against cash-rich traditional political parties and all odds, on ideal beliefs of rooting out corruption, and getting back to grass roots movement that once Gandhi led, through what JP calls "a second independence movement". It's one seat only that the party won, but it's a beginning.. and am sure we will only see it grow in to a formidable opponent in the years to come.

Gurgaon, what grows outside Delhi