Walk in the Rain

My fellow Portlanders & Oregonians will vouch that cloudy days like for example today in PDX won't last forever and it will be eventually be Sunny again. By the way, did you know that Pittsburgh (PA), Rochester (NY), Burlington (VT), Cleveland(OH), Grand Rapids (MI), Hilo(Hawaai) all have less number of sunny days than Portland, OR which gets 68 days of sunshine in a year. So stop bashing Portland as the land of rain !

We in Portland ofcourse enjoy Sun better than anyone else ..well, except the Seattle folks, may be. Why, because we understand the value of it ! and don't take it for granted like those sweaty Californians or Texans ! ! So as you can imagine, no lunch hour discussion or quick chat with another Portlander would be complete without the reference to the current weather and better tomorrow.

Now that teaches few important things to Portlanders .. "hope", that things will be always better tomorrow, even though today might suck !, also to "be realistic" that there are things that are not in your control, and "learn to adapt" - have always a plan for fun rain or shine. Of course, lastly we understand that everything is cyclical !

Now let's put that in to the context of current gloom and doom economy show that we all seem to be dragged into... lot of folks are wondering where does this lead to ? a tragedy or happy ending ? and panicking what to do when the world comes to an end. First thing, take a queue from my fellow Portlanders and relax ! these days of gloom and doom shall too pass, and Sunny days will be here again !

But if you are still not sure .. here's my own rendition of how the current times too follow the classic cyclical nature of markets around the world.

• Increase in consumerism --> Surge in Demand of all products-->
• Booming markets & Rosy outlook by companies --> Stock markets go up ->
• Increased Capital spending -> Employment & Salary growth -> Boom stories !
• Rise in asset prices with no correlation to real value (aka Infaltion)->
• Govt initiatives & tax incentives keep the bubble growing ->
• Banks & lenders go big guns, Credit rules !! -> Asset prices & stock markets rocket higher ->
• Net worth increased -> Party time !!
• Reckless spending - wants vs needs ->
• Significant expansions/initiatives w/no correlation to true demand ->
• Excessive supply in market -> Aggressive marketing tactics & Risky lending pracitces ->
• Increased dependence on debt overall -> Demand slows down & Signs of Losses for Real estate ->
• Sprialing costs and cost of debt -> Tighened lending terms -> Asset values significant drop ->
• Bad debts increase as they couldn't afford it in first place -> Finally some has to pay up !!
• Lenders losses mount & Financial stocks crash -> Liquidity freeze ->
• Stock markets show signs of weakness -> Cautious future outlook by Corporations ->
• Lack of demand for raw materials/energy -> Investors withdraw ->
• Big companies take hit -> Stocks keep going down -> Consumer gets hit & Economy in news ->
• Wide spread panic & Stock markets crash Investors flee -> Government initiatives ->
• All-around spending freeze & Less jobs -> Unemployment rate spikes up -->
• Salaries go down -> Party over !!
• Consumer spending hit --> Cosumer-oriented & value stocks get hit ->
• Recession declared -> Home & asset prices drop further ->
• Net worth drops as Savings & retirement funds lose value ->
• Government dumps new money into circulation ->
• Burnt once, investors forget market ->
• Slow,long recovery while everyone get used to Pain -> Bargain hunters enter !!
• Real estate and asset prices show signs of recovery -> Stock markets flat ->
• Corporations start growth initiatives -> New bubbles (how about renewable energy ?) ->
• Venture capital flows -> New Growth companies ->
• Govt Initiatives to boost economy -> Hmmm.. how about war with Venezuela?
• New capital projects > Stock prices up in growth sectors ->
• Financial companies & Investors initiate buying -> Stock markets signs of growth ->
• Newer markets in Emerging countries open up ->Markets & Growth stories in news ->
• Increased consumer confidence -> Employment rates up ->
• Everyone wants to join the band-wagon -> It's boom time baby ! back to consumerism !!!

Of course it's cyclical and only question is how long will this bad spell last, and how well we all rideout these down days and comeout shining on the sunny side. Ofcourse we have new Uncle Sam in town to bail the average Joe Plumber out !

Only caution is it appears the duration of these cycles of boom and bust in markets seems to be getting shorter and shorter, very similar to the number of sunny days per year in Portland which seems to keep going down over time !!!

I guess there is a long term equivalent of global warming coming to financial markets which ofcourse is not good for all.. but who cares, it's time to enjoy my walk in the rain ...

Lighten up !!

We need a refreshing rain from the sweltering economic heat ..

Bailout song

Then and Now

October 24 1929: Then People gather on the sub-treasury building steps across from the New York Stock Exchange on Black Thursday. Thousands of investors lost their savings in the stock market crash after a five-day frenzy of heavy trading. Too much speculation with borrowed money had inflated market values unrealistically.







Oct 9, 2008 : Now The TV news media attract onlookers in front of same building now known as Federal Hall, while broadcasting coverage of nearby New York Stock Exchange as Dow Jones drops another 670 Pts to breach 9000 level after a five day frenzy of 2000 Pts loss. Only billions watch this story unfold world-wide in their Pajamas.

Sign of the Times: National Debt Clock Runs Out of Digits

The clock has run out on the national debt. The National Debt Clock, the unofficial tracker of the federal deficit maintained by the Durst Organization in New York, has reached its limits (the ever-familiar Number range issue in IT). Last month, as the national debt exceeded $10 trillion for the first time, the clock ran out of digits to record the number. The dollar sign in the clock had to be deleted and replaced with a one to record the massive number. The clock’s owners say a new model — with space for two extra digits — will be in place early next year. Now the debt clock will be able to reach the quadrillions. Hopefully, that’s not a level that will be breached any time soon...

Don't believe there is a crisis ?

Not to cause panic, but to elevate your awareness of what's going on with the news about economy now-a-days.. watch this video as it hits home the extent of the current crisis as it unfolds..

Foreclosure Crisis

And while this is unfolding, would you not want to know what if any US government was or is doing and if they have this under control, check this out

Then and Now

Last October, citing Internal Revenue Service data, the Wall Street Journal reported that the top 1 percent of Americans earned 21.2 percent of all income in 2005. That's the highest measure of income inequality since, you guessed it, before the Great Depression.